Lead Story
Issue No. 13 - October/November 2003
South Australian Economic Outlook
Steady State
by Professor Richard Blandy
In its recently released Business Outlook, Access Economics has upwardly revised its view of the outlook for the South Australian economy. Access Economics still believes that South Australia’s share of the national economy will fall, but such a fall was previously predicted by Access to have started two years ago — a fall that has not happened, of course. The rate of fall in South Australia’s share of the national economy now predicted by Access is less than half of the rate it previously predicted. Access Economics now says (p.102) that.
South Australia’s economy has consistently surprised Access Economics with its strength of late. We remain sceptical, and the jury is still clearly out, but clients should take note that business is now betting its dollars on a revival of the South.
Six months ago, in in—business South Australia, I said that the economic outlook for South Australia over the next 18 months looked likely to be pretty much a continuation of the excellent economic performance that the State had enjoyed over the past two years — and very much better than over the previous decade. It is good to see that an economics group of the standing of Access Economics is now coming round to a more positive view of the State’s prospects, based on recognition of its economic success over the past couple of years, notwithstanding that Access’s longstanding negative view of SA’s economic prospects has not yet completely dissipated.
In this review of the South Australian economic outlook for in—business, I first look at the background outlook for the world and Australian economies before reviewing a range of indicators for South Australia compared with the other States. I conclude with a more specific look at trends in a number of industry sectors and regions within the State.
The world and Australian economic outlook
According to a number of global economic foreca...
