E-Business
Issue No. 24 - August/September 2005
[The next big thing]
by David Twiss
A question I’m often asked is “what’s going to be the next hot technology?”
It’s a tough question, with so many clever technological developments these days. The answer rather depends on the person asking and what they’re trying to do.
A useful tool for explaining emerging technologies and their relevance over time is the Technology Hype Cycle, from the research and advisory firm, Gartner. Some time back, someone at Gartner conceived the hype cycle as a graphical way to represent the maturity, adoption and business application of new technologies.
The five-phased Hype Cycle is a neat way to illustrating overheated hype and later disappointment that typically happens with the introduction of new technologies. Hype cycles also show how technologies move beyond the hype, offer practical benefits and become widely accepted.
Kicking off the Hype Cycle is the "Technology Trigger" or breakthrough, product launch or other event that generates significant press and interest.
In the second phase, the “Peak of Inflated Expectations”, a frenzy of publicity typically generates over-enthusiasm and unrealistic expectations. There may be some successful applications of a technology, but there are typically more failures. In this phase the technology is “on everyone’s lips”, and is talked about and written about extensively.
Next comes the "Trough of Disillusionment", where new technologies fail to meet expectations and quickly become unfashionable. In this phase the press usually abandons the topic and the technology.
This is followed by the "Slope of Enlightenment"; although the press may have stopped covering the technology, some businesses continue through the "slope of enlightenment" and experiment to understand the benefits and practical application of the technology.
Finally a technology reaches the "plateau of productivity" as the benefits of it become widely demonstrated and accepte...
