Lead Story
Issue No. 38 - December/January 07/08
Skills Crunch
by Professor Richard Blandy
To meet demand for skilled workers, trained managers and small business entrepreneurs of the future, South Australia must heed the ‘Year 12 imperative’.
Assuming that Adelaide does not run out of water (which seems very unlikely, despite the severity of the drought and the parlous state of the River Murray), the economic future for South Australia is looking brighter than it has done for some time.
On modest assumptions about
the extent of mining successes from the exploration activity under way in South Australia,
the impact of the Air Warfare Defence contracts, submarine refits, battalion relocations, and so on, and
the ability of Adelaide’s small businesses to accelerate their mushrooming growth by becoming globally connected via the internet,
South Australia can expect its rate of economic
growth to
double over the next six years to 5.8% per annum,
increase by 50% over the next 10 years to 4.2 per cent per annum, and
increase by 30% over the next 20 years to 3.6 per cent per annum.
These outcomes are shown in Figure 1.
These growth rates approximate to WA’s recent history. Over the past decade, WA’s gross state product (to June 2006) rose by 4.3% per annum, and WA’s state final demand (to September 2007) rose by 5.7% per annum. Over shorter periods, WA’s economic growth was even faster at times. So these growth rates are by no means infeasible for SA, especially as they will be significantly driven by very similar economic forces.
Assuming fast labour productivity growth of 3% per annum over the six years to 2013, 2% per annum over the 10 years to 2017, and 2% per annum over the 20 years to 2027, yields employment growth of 2.8% per annum up to 2013, 2.2% per annum up to 2017 and 1.8% per annum up to 2027.
These rates of...
